Predictability
Bonabeau, the author of Swarm Intelligence, on the interview with O'Reilley Tech talk, said that his “swarm intelligence” algorithm capability is still doubted by the industries because of lack of control by his algorithm.
The swarm intelligence is an emergence behavior where there is no leader in the community of agents. However with the collection of the community or group capability, these agents become highly intelligent on solving a NP-hard problems and its ability to solve dynamic problem where the optimal solution always change with time.
In my opinion, there's nothing in this world that we can't predict. However with the shallowness of human intelligence, it makes it difficult to predict an event that occurs in the present or in the future.
Let's take a look at two obvious examples. First case, people now can predict how long it take me to drive from point A to point B with several given information (speed of car, distance, traffic flow, weather, accident, etc). Another example is when a dishwasher in a restaurant tries to predict the income of the restaurant owner for that night. He can predict the flow of money with information that available for him: the number of plates he washes, the type of plates, number of glasses of wine, the weight of the garbage bag at the end of the night, etc.
In the first case, if we take the assumption that the traffic is empty and no accident on the way, and we have the information for continuous speed during the acceleration, and deceleration (or say constant speed), and the exact distance from point A to B, we can predict exactly of what time we will arrive at point B. At the second situation, we can also predict exactly the income of the restaurant owner that night if we put a lot of assumption, for example the type of one plate correlate with one type of food so we can predict the flow of money on each plate the dishwasher guy washes. In real life situation, we can always predict anything if we know all information given. The problem can be easily solved by if-then-case or rule based method. The more we know about the rule the more we can predict correctly.
Men are stupid compares to another power that creates this life, the ultimate all knowing in to every detail things that occur in this world. Einstein comment on a scientist about unpredictable movement behavior of neutron on an atom: “God never play dice”. Few years later another scientist proved that Einstein was right. Everything is predictable in this world. The only problem is the shallowness of human intelligence.
The swarm intelligence is an emergence behavior where there is no leader in the community of agents. However with the collection of the community or group capability, these agents become highly intelligent on solving a NP-hard problems and its ability to solve dynamic problem where the optimal solution always change with time.
In my opinion, there's nothing in this world that we can't predict. However with the shallowness of human intelligence, it makes it difficult to predict an event that occurs in the present or in the future.
Let's take a look at two obvious examples. First case, people now can predict how long it take me to drive from point A to point B with several given information (speed of car, distance, traffic flow, weather, accident, etc). Another example is when a dishwasher in a restaurant tries to predict the income of the restaurant owner for that night. He can predict the flow of money with information that available for him: the number of plates he washes, the type of plates, number of glasses of wine, the weight of the garbage bag at the end of the night, etc.
In the first case, if we take the assumption that the traffic is empty and no accident on the way, and we have the information for continuous speed during the acceleration, and deceleration (or say constant speed), and the exact distance from point A to B, we can predict exactly of what time we will arrive at point B. At the second situation, we can also predict exactly the income of the restaurant owner that night if we put a lot of assumption, for example the type of one plate correlate with one type of food so we can predict the flow of money on each plate the dishwasher guy washes. In real life situation, we can always predict anything if we know all information given. The problem can be easily solved by if-then-case or rule based method. The more we know about the rule the more we can predict correctly.
Men are stupid compares to another power that creates this life, the ultimate all knowing in to every detail things that occur in this world. Einstein comment on a scientist about unpredictable movement behavior of neutron on an atom: “God never play dice”. Few years later another scientist proved that Einstein was right. Everything is predictable in this world. The only problem is the shallowness of human intelligence.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home